COLORADO — Will this be a white Christmas?  

December 2024 has been warmer-than-average conditions across almost the entire state, with very little snowfall. On the CSU campus, we've had just 1.7 inches of snow for the season, compared to an average of 17 inches. As CSU heads into winter break and students, faculty, and staff travel to spend time with family and friends, what do we see in the weather forecast, and how does it compare to the historical holiday climate across Colorado? 

If you like snow and the idea of a white Christmas, you're in luck – if you can make it to the mountains. The common definition of a white Christmas is having at least an inch of snow on the ground the morning of Dec. 25; with this definition, Colorado's high elevations are a sure bet for a white Christmas. 

As you go to lower elevations, the odds of a white Christmas also go down. 

At the official Fort Collins weather station on the CSU campus, just over half the years since 1980 had an inch or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. But only two of the last six years have had a white Christmas; in both 2021 and 2023, there was rain on Dec. 24. In the Arkansas River Valley in southeastern Colorado and around Grand Junction and Palisade on the Western Slope, the percentage of years with snow on the ground on Dec. 25 drops below 10%. 

So, what's in store for us this year? The answer is not crystal clear, adding a sense of anticipation and engagement to our holiday plans. 

The National Weather Service is forecasting a 40% chance of snow for Alamosa on Christmas Day. This means that there is a moderate likelihood of snowfall in this area on that day. The days leading up to the holidays have been very warm, with high temperatures in the 50s and even some 60s (Fahrenheit) along the Front Range and eastern Plains – generally 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. The pattern of little to no precipitation has continued and will persist through at least Dec. 24. The warm, dry weather is certainly pleasant for being outside and for traveling but is not great for the snowpack and drought situation. 

As last week's U.S. Drought Monitor shows, most of Larimer and Boulder counties and the western third of Weld County are presently in a state of severe drought – with a pocket of extreme drought straddling northern Larimer and Weld. Northern Colorado currently has the worst drought conditions of anywhere in the state, with a lack of precipitation extending back to May. 

However, the weather pattern looks to become more active starting around Christmas Day and for the beginning of Hanukkah and Kwanzaa on Dec. 26. The high country should see some snowfall on the 25th and 26th, potentially transforming it into a winter wonderland. At lower elevations, it's less certain, but there is at least an outside chance of precipitation late on the 25th – though questions remain about whether it would even be cold enough to snow, or whether any precipitation would fall as rain instead. 

The mountains should continue to see periods of snow through the last few days of December, and early January looks like it will have temperatures a little closer to the seasonal average, in contrast to the warmth we've had through December.